FOREX ANALYSIS

EURUSD In the process of a corrective bounce following a 10 big figure drop in May with the market rallying from below 1.4000 and in search of a fresh lower top ahead of the next major downside extension below 1.3970. From here, look for any rallies to be well capped in the 1.4400-1.4550 area, with only a break back above 1.4550 negating negative outlook and giving reason for concern. Back below 1.4255 confirms and should accelerate declines.

USDJPY After undergoing a fairly intense drop off from the 85.50 area several days back, the market looks to have finally found some support by the bottom of the daily Ichimoku cloud and could be in the process of carving out some form of a base. Look for setbacks to continue to be well supported in the 80.00's with only a close back below 79.50 to give reason for concern. From here we see the risks for a fresh upside extension back towards the recent range highs at 85.50 over the coming weeks.

GBPUSD The 100-Day SMA has proven to be formidable support for the pair, with the price rallying substantially out from the 1.6060 lows to trade back above 1.6500. However, we would expect rallies to now be well capped below 1.6600 on a daily close basis. Look for a lower top in the 1.6500 area ahead of the next major downside extension below 1.6000 over the coming days. Ultimately, only a daily close back above 1.6600 would negate outlook.

USDCHF The latest minor recovery has proved to be just that, with the market finding a fresh lower top ahead of 0.9000 in favor of this latest sharp drop to yet another record low in the 0.8500 area. Daily studies are however still looking quite stretched to us, and we continue to like the idea of taking shots at buying on dips in anticipation of a major base. Look for current declines to hold around the 0.8500 area and a break back above 0.8740 to encourage basing prospects and open the door for the potential formation of a major interday double bottom (neckline by 0.8950) projecting gains back towards 0.9500. A daily close below 0.8400 would negate.

Continues to show signs of topping after posting fresh post float record highs just over 1.1000 several days back. The latest corrective rally therefore is expected to be well capped ahead of 1.0800 where the next lower top is sought out ahead of a fresh downside extension below 1.0440 and into the 1.0200's. Ultimately, only a daily close back above 1.0800 negates and gives reason for concern.

NZDUSD Remains very well bid with the market breaking to fresh yearly and 26-year highs above 0.8250. Daily studies are however starting to look stretched, but a break back below 0.8150 will be required at a minimum to relieve immediate topside pressures. A daily close above 0.8250 however, will open the door for yet another upside extension towards next key psychological barriers by 0.8500 further up.

USDCAD The market has finally managed to mount a nice recovery since basing out by fresh multi-month lows in the 0.9400's and could be in the process of attempting to establish a more meaningful base. The latest break and close back above 0.9700 triggers an inverse H&S pattern that now projects additional gains towards parity over the coming days. Look for setbacks to now be well supported above 0.9600 on a daily close basis.

EURJPY The latest sharp pullbacks into the 113.00's have been intense, although the market has now found some formidable support by the previous resistance area now turned support. Look for a fresh medium-term higher low to carve out above 113.00 ahead of the next major upside extension back towards and eventually through the recent highs by 123.35. Only a daily close below 113.00 concerns.

GBPJPY Market setbacks in May have been very well supported on dips below the 100 and 200-Day SMAs and we look for the formation of a fresh medium-term higher low by 130.30 ahead of the next major upside extension back towards and eventually through 140.00. In the interim, any intraday setbacks should be well supported in the 132.00 area.

EURJPY Any hopes for a material base by 1.2400 have now been shattered, with the market dropping to fresh record lows below the figure and threatening deeper setbacks towards major psychological barriers by 1.2000. Still, while medium and longer-term studies show overextension, we continue to like the idea of looking for opportunities to buy into dips rather than selling. For now, we will stay on the sidelines and await the next opportunity. A daily close back above 1.2360 will be required at a minimum to relieve immediate downside pressures.

USD INDEX Although the overall downtrend has been quite intense, the market could be showing signs of basing following the latest impressive rebound. Look for a break back above the 1April high on to officially confirm bullish reversal prospects and accelerate gains. However, inability to establish above the 1Apr high will keep the pressure on the downside and open a retest of the recent trend lows. A more constructive weekly chart does help to reaffirm recovery outlook, but setbacks will need to hold above 74.00 for recovery outlook to remain intact.

EURUSD

: Daily studies could be in the process of attempting to correct from overbought, with the RSI looking to roll over from above 70 levels, and we would look for a daily close below 1.4750 on Thursday to confirm short-term topping and open the door for a more significant short-term corrective decline towards the 20-Day SMA by 1.4600. A sequence of consecutive daily higher lows has also been broken to warn of the potential bearish reversal, but with the trend having been so intensely bullish, we would wait for the daily close below 1.4750 for confirmation. Ultimately however, any setbacks from here are still viewed as corrective, with the market very much confined to a well defined multi-week up-trend from early 2011. Perhaps a daily close below the 20-Day SMA would officially shift the shorter-term outlook. Back above 1.4940 however, exposes next critical resistance by 1.5000 and then the 2009 highs further up at 1.5145.

USD/JPY

:Despite the latest slide back below 82.00, we continue to retain a constructive outlook for the market so long as it holds above the daily Ichimoku cloud. Use the cloud as a reference point and look to buy dips towards 80.00. Ultimately, only a sustained break back below the cloud would negate constructive outlook.

GBP/USD:

The latest surge through psychological barriers at 1.6500 has now negated the multi-week range trade and potentially exposes fresh upside ahead. The 2009 highs come in by next critical resistance in the form of the 1.7000 barrier and we could now se a test of this level over the coming days. Still, this market has proven to be very well offered on any fresh rallies, and we would therefore recommend proceeding with caution. Tuesday's setbacks confirm our theory and could now open a deeper drop before buyers reassert. In the interim, we remain on the sidelines and await a clearer signal.

USD/CHF

: The latest break to fresh record lows below 0.8600 is certainly concerning and threatens our longer-term recovery outlook. Still, we do not see setbacks extending much further and continue to favor the formation of some form of a material base over the coming weeks for an eventual break back above parity. Look for the market to hold above 0.8500 on a daily close basis, while a daily close back above 0.8650 will officially relieve immediate downside pressures and accelerate gains. Only a break and weekly close below 0.8500 ultimately delays outlook.

AUD/USD

: The uptrend remains firmly intact and the intensity of the move has been unrelenting. Still, we continue to see the greater risk over the short-term for some form of a more meaningful corrective reversal, with daily studies rolling over from overbought and the market trading just off 30-year and post float record highs above 1.1000. The market has most recently broken back below the 10-Day SMA, and a daily close below the 20-Day SMA on Thursday could officially signal the onset of a short-term corrective reversal exposing the 1.0300-1.0500 area further down.

NZD/USD:

The rally out from the mid-March 0.7100 area lows has been most impressive, with the market trading all the way back above 0.8000 to leave daily studies severely overbought. However, any additional gains from here are seen limited, with the greater risk for some form of a medium-term lower top by 0.8100 in favor of a bearish reversal back towards and eventually below 0.7820. A topside failure above 0.8000 and break over the coming days back below 0.7820 would set up a meaningful topping formation that would then open a fresh drop all the way back towards the 0.7600 area. A break and daily close back above 0.8100 negates and gives reason for pause.

USD/CAD:

Any recoveries in this market have been short-lived, with the price dropping back below 0.9500 in recent trade to fresh multi-month lows in the 0.9400's. However, despite the weakness, we see risks for additional declines from here as limited, with the greater risk for the formation of a longer-term higher low above 0.9055 ahead of the next major upside extension beyond 0.9975 and back through parity. Ultimately, only a weekly close below 0.9400 would delay. Wednesday's daily close back above 0.9580 further confirms bias and should accelerate.

EUR/JPY:

The market has finally taken out some critical multi-week range resistance in the 116.00 area and we believe this to be a significant medium-term development. The break above 116.00 now suggests that a major base is in place with fresh upside now projected back towards the 125.00 area over the coming days. Daily studies are however in the process of consolidating from overbought and buying into dips would be the preferred strategy. Look for any inter-day pullbacks to be well supported above the 50-Day SMA.

GBP/JPY:

Following the break above some critical multi-week resistance by 138.00 several days back, we have shifted our outlook to the constructive side and see risks for more material gains over the medium term beyond 140.00. As such, the latest pullback is classified as corrective and any additional weakness should prove to be well supported by the 100/200-Day SMAs in the 132.00 area. Only a sustained break back below these longer-term moving averages would negate.

EUR/CHF:

The market remains very well supported on dips and following the successful defense of the record lows by 1.2400. Look for any setbacks from here to be well supported above 1.2700 on a daily close basis. Back above the 20-Day SMA confirms and should accelerate gains. In the interim, we remain sidelined amidst the latest consolidation.

DXY:

The market remains under intense pressure with the price dropping to yet another fresh yearly and multi-month low below 73.00 thus far. However, with daily studies tracking oversold, we are not sure how much further setbacks can extend before a necessary corrective rebound, and as such, we would be on the lookout for such a reversal. Weekly price action is already showing potential, with the market putting in a series of bullish doji closes. A daily close above 73.30 will confirm.