EURUSD The market is once again very well bid with the latest gains managing to accelerate beyond resistance in the lower 1.4500's and into the 1.4600's thus far. From here, we still retain an overall bearish bias, but would look for gains to potentially extend some more towards the 78.6% fib retrace off of the major 1.4940-1.3970 move by 1.4730 before considering the possibility for bearish resumption. Back below 1.4450 would now be required to relieve immediate topside pressures.
USDJPY After undergoing a fairly intense drop off from the 85.50 area several days back, the market looks to have finally found some support in the 80.00's and could be in the process of carving out some form of a base. Look for setbacks to continue to be well supported by 80.00 with only a close back below 79.50 to give reason for concern. From here we see the risks for a fresh upside extension back towards the recent range highs at 85.50 over the coming weeks.
GBPUSD Rallies have been very well capped in the 1.6500's with the market looking like it wants to carve out a fresh lower top by 1.6550 ahead of the next downside extension below 1.6060. A break back below 1.6285 will reaffirm outlook and accelerate declines, while only back above 1.6550 negates and gives reason for pause.
USDCHF The latest minor recovery has proved to be just that, with the market finding a fresh lower top ahead of 0.9000 in favor of a drop to yet another record low below 0.8400. Daily studies are however still looking quite stretched to us, and we continue to like the idea of taking shots at buying in anticipation of a major base. Look for a break and close back above 0.8450 to encourage bullish reversal prospects, while a drop below 0.8300 delays.
AUDUSD Continues to show signs of topping after posting fresh post float record highs just over 1.1000 several days back. The latest corrective rally therefore is expected to be well capped ahead of 1.0800 where the next lower top is sought out ahead of a fresh downside extension below 1.0440 and into the 1.0200's. Ultimately, only a daily close back above 1.0800 negates and gives reason for concern.
USDCAD The market has finally managed to mount a nice recovery since basing out by fresh multi-month lows in the 0.9400's and could be in the process of attempting to establish a more meaningful base. The latest break and close back above 0.9700 triggers an inverse H&S pattern that now projects additional gains towards parity over the coming days. Look for setbacks to now be well supported above 0.9650 on a daily close basis.
EURJPY The latest sharp pullbacks into the 113.00's have been intense, although the market has now found some formidable support by the previous resistance area now turned support. Look for a fresh medium-term higher low to carve out above 113.00 ahead of the next major upside extension back towards and eventually through the recent highs by 123.35. Only a daily close below 113.00 concerns.
GBPJPY Market setbacks in May have been very well supported on dips below the 100 and 200-Day SMAs and we look for the formation of a fresh medium-term higher low by 130.30 ahead of the next major upside extension back towards and eventually through 140.00. In the interim, any intraday setbacks should be well supported above 130.00.
EURCHF
Any hopes for a material base by 1.2400 have now been shattered, with the market dropping to fresh record lows below the figure and threatening deeper setbacks towards major psychological barriers by 1.2000. Still, while medium and longer-term studies show overextension, we continue to like the idea of looking for opportunities to buy into dips rather than selling. For now, we will stay on the sidelines and await the next opportunity. A daily close back above 1.2320 will be required at a minimum to relieve immediate downside pressures.
US DOLLAR INDEX Although the overall downtrend has been quite intense, the market could be showing signs of basing following the latest impressive rebound. Look for a break back above the 24May high on to officially confirm bullish reversal prospects and accelerate gains. However, inability to establish above the 24May high will keep the pressure on the downside and open a retest of the recent trend lows. A more constructive weekly chart does help to reaffirm recovery outlook, but setbacks will need to hold above 9430 for recovery outlook to remain intact.
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