EURUSD In the process of a corrective bounce following a 10 big figure drop in May with the market rallying from below 1.4000 and in search of a fresh lower top ahead of the next major downside extension below 1.3970. From here, look for any rallies to be well capped in the 1.4400-1.4550 area, with only a break back above 1.4550 negating negative outlook and giving reason for concern. Back below 1.4255 confirms and should accelerate declines.
USDJPY After undergoing a fairly intense drop off from the 85.50 area several days back, the market looks to have finally found some support by the bottom of the daily Ichimoku cloud and could be in the process of carving out some form of a base. Look for setbacks to continue to be well supported in the 80.00's with only a close back below 79.50 to give reason for concern. From here we see the risks for a fresh upside extension back towards the recent range highs at 85.50 over the coming weeks.
GBPUSD The 100-Day SMA has proven to be formidable support for the pair, with the price rallying substantially out from the 1.6060 lows to trade back above 1.6500. However, we would expect rallies to now be well capped below 1.6600 on a daily close basis. Look for a lower top in the 1.6500 area ahead of the next major downside extension below 1.6000 over the coming days. Ultimately, only a daily close back above 1.6600 would negate outlook.
USDCHF The latest minor recovery has proved to be just that, with the market finding a fresh lower top ahead of 0.9000 in favor of this latest sharp drop to yet another record low in the 0.8500 area. Daily studies are however still looking quite stretched to us, and we continue to like the idea of taking shots at buying on dips in anticipation of a major base. Look for current declines to hold around the 0.8500 area and a break back above 0.8740 to encourage basing prospects and open the door for the potential formation of a major interday double bottom (neckline by 0.8950) projecting gains back towards 0.9500. A daily close below 0.8400 would negate.
Continues to show signs of topping after posting fresh post float record highs just over 1.1000 several days back. The latest corrective rally therefore is expected to be well capped ahead of 1.0800 where the next lower top is sought out ahead of a fresh downside extension below 1.0440 and into the 1.0200's. Ultimately, only a daily close back above 1.0800 negates and gives reason for concern.
NZDUSD Remains very well bid with the market breaking to fresh yearly and 26-year highs above 0.8250. Daily studies are however starting to look stretched, but a break back below 0.8150 will be required at a minimum to relieve immediate topside pressures. A daily close above 0.8250 however, will open the door for yet another upside extension towards next key psychological barriers by 0.8500 further up.
USDCAD The market has finally managed to mount a nice recovery since basing out by fresh multi-month lows in the 0.9400's and could be in the process of attempting to establish a more meaningful base. The latest break and close back above 0.9700 triggers an inverse H&S pattern that now projects additional gains towards parity over the coming days. Look for setbacks to now be well supported above 0.9600 on a daily close basis.
EURJPY The latest sharp pullbacks into the 113.00's have been intense, although the market has now found some formidable support by the previous resistance area now turned support. Look for a fresh medium-term higher low to carve out above 113.00 ahead of the next major upside extension back towards and eventually through the recent highs by 123.35. Only a daily close below 113.00 concerns.
GBPJPY Market setbacks in May have been very well supported on dips below the 100 and 200-Day SMAs and we look for the formation of a fresh medium-term higher low by 130.30 ahead of the next major upside extension back towards and eventually through 140.00. In the interim, any intraday setbacks should be well supported in the 132.00 area.
EURJPY Any hopes for a material base by 1.2400 have now been shattered, with the market dropping to fresh record lows below the figure and threatening deeper setbacks towards major psychological barriers by 1.2000. Still, while medium and longer-term studies show overextension, we continue to like the idea of looking for opportunities to buy into dips rather than selling. For now, we will stay on the sidelines and await the next opportunity. A daily close back above 1.2360 will be required at a minimum to relieve immediate downside pressures.
USD INDEX Although the overall downtrend has been quite intense, the market could be showing signs of basing following the latest impressive rebound. Look for a break back above the 1April high on to officially confirm bullish reversal prospects and accelerate gains. However, inability to establish above the 1Apr high will keep the pressure on the downside and open a retest of the recent trend lows. A more constructive weekly chart does help to reaffirm recovery outlook, but setbacks will need to hold above 74.00 for recovery outlook to remain intact.
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